February 2018 – Moving On Up - The New Street Resale Real Estate Report for The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region
It seems the downward trend the market has been experiencing for the last few months is starting to move on up. Sales are up 20-30% overall in both Toronto & Hamilton markets from last month. Although this still represents a 40% decrease from last year, it also means a step toward a resurgence in the market. Similarly, prices are also showing promise, up 3-5% from last month, while new listings are up by 22.5% on TREB, keeping it a buyers market for the time being. Days on the market are down about 20% on both boards which means product is moving faster than the end of 2017 and January 2018, but still remaining on the market almost double as long as last year. We can expect to see figures improving month-to-month over the next two months while still representing a drop in year-to-year stats. This is do to February-April being the tipping point for the market in 2017.
GTA & Hamilton Home Prices - TREB & RABH MLS Systems - Last 12 Months
Keeping with the above trend, a deeper dive is showing a positive month-to-month trend across the board for homes sold, average price and new listings. Most notably a 28.8% increase in homes sold for TREB and a 22.5% increase in new listings since last month. RAHB saw a 19.9% increase in homes sold since last month. Not surprisingly were seeing a corresponding decrease in year to year stats, which as we mentioned above is predictable given the market’s peak around this time last year. The one exception is new listings reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board, which is up 7.3% from this month last year. Also notable is average price is only down 4% for RAHB from last year. As we mentioned, average days on the market are seeing a significant increase since last year, up 92.3% for TREB and 63.6% for RAHB. But we’re also seeing a drop in days on the market since last month for both boards, 21.9% for TREB and 18.2% for RAHB.
GTA & Hamilton Homes Sales Stats –February 2018
When we evaluate by home type in the Toronto Real Estate board, we see the following insights:
- Townhomes in Toronto are up 15.5% from last year - the highest average price increase for any home type in February.
- Condos are second in line, up 11% in average price in Toronto from last year, with 905 condos up 7.6%.
- Prices of all other home types including detaches, semis and 905 townhomes are down from last year but up from last month, showing the positive month-t0-month growth we mentioned previously.
GTA Sales & Average Price by Home Type - February 2018
The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington MLS System reported a total of 580 freehold and 172 condominium sales in February. This represents an increase in freehold sales of 17.2% from the previous month, but a decrease of 42.8% from February last year. Freehold prices are up 5% since last month and down slightly from last year (3.6%) at an average of $576,935. Condominiums are experiencing a spike in sales this month, up 30.3% since last month, but down 28% from last year. Average price is down only 1.5% from last month and up 2.7% since time last year.
Hamilton & Burlington Sales & Average Price by Home Type - February 2018
As we look to the map below, we can begin to examine how the market is performing on a more local level in the Hamilton and Southwestern Ontario area: Hamilton Area
- There are some outliers in the Hamilton area that saw an increase in year-to-year average price (see following slides)
- Caledonia, increasing by 17.7% to $473,221
- Dunnville increased 22.6% to $399, 683
- Glanbrook, up 24.4% to $619,957
- Waterdown and Flamborough saw a decline in sales month-to-month and year-to-year with the exception that Flamborough saw a 20% increase in volume from last month totalling 12 sales
- Hamilton Centre and East saw an increase in both sales and price from last month, as well as an increase in average price from last year, marginally for Hamilton Central and almost 25% for Hamilton East
- Both Hamilton Centre & East saw the predictable decrease in sales volume from last year in the 40+%.
- Hamilton West saw a decrease across the board in both sales and average price from last month and last year
- The average price of a home in Dundas was up 4% from the previous month and 8% from the previous year.
- The average price of a home in Ancaster was up by 18.3% from the previous month and remained steady, within a percentage point, from February 2017.
- With 37 total sales in Ancaster, activity was up over 50% from last month but still down about 25% from the previous year
- The average price of a home in Stoney Creek is $527,661. Down by about 6% from the previous year and up 7% from last month.
- There was 70 total home sales in Stoney Creek, up by almost 50% from January
- Grimsby had a total of 34 home sales in February, exactly tied with sales from February last year but up almost 50% from the previous month.
- The average price of a home was up 17% from the previous month and within 2% points of last years average home price
Hamilton & Southwestern Ontario Prices & Sales by Community (RAHB's MLS System) - February 2018
Looking into more detail at the GTA region, we continue to see the same trend of steady growth month-to-month, but overall decline year-to-year, similar to what we’re seeing in the Hamilton and Southwestern Ontario markets. Two notable exceptions are Halton Hills which experienced a 2.7% increase in average prince from last year and Toronto West which saw a marginal average price increase of 0.3% from last year. Other notable insights include: Toronto:
- Sales are down across the board about 26-34% from last year but up from last month by about 30-40%
- Toronto West, Central and East saw an increase of sales from last month of +30% respectively, with Toronto East taking the lead at 37.8%
- Across the board, average condo prices saw an increase of 9-11% from this time last year. Toronto Central saw the largest average price jumps, with condos up by almost 12% and condo towns up by 20.6%
- Detached and semis in central Toronto took the biggest dive in average price, down 19% and 15% respectively
- Freehold towns in the East-end were up 17% in average price
- Townhomes in Toronto are up 15.5% from last year representing the highest average price increase for any home type in February
- Condos are second in line, up 11% in average price in Toronto from last year, with 905 condos up 7.6%
- The average price of a home in Oakville is still the highest in the GTA at over $1MIL, down by 22% from last year, which is not unexpected, and within a percentage of last month
- Sales were up by almost 50% from last month
- Condo sales were up by 12% from last year
- With the average home price of $655,804, Mississauga is the most affordable place to buy a home in the GTA this month
- The average price of a semi and detached was down by about 10% from last year
- Mississauga condos were up by almost 14% from last year, one of the highest home type increases in all of GTA
- Sales in Milton we up over 50% from January, down from last year by 19%, the lowest decrease in sales seen in any GTA city
- Average sales prices down marginally for all home types except condos from last year (which saw an increase of 3.4%)
- Overall prices in Milton were up by 8% from the previous month
- Sales activity trends in York are similar to the rest of GTA down by 40-50% from last year but up 20-60% from last month
- Prices on average have increased from the previous month by 4-13% in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham and Aurora
- Condos in Vaughan saw the biggest average price jump, up 11.2% from last year
- Newmarket and Richmond Hill condos saw average condo prices up by 8.2% and 7.5% respectively
- Detached homes in Newmarket and Markham saw the largest average price drop down approx. 27%
- Detached, semis and towns all saw double digit average price drops from last year throughout the York region
- Burlington experienced a 20.4% increase in sales from last month at 136, mostly detached homes
- Semis are the only type that experienced an increase in number of sales from last year, a staggering 120% increase, representing 11 sales
- Average price was down 8.8% from last month and 13.3% from last year
- Condos were the only type that experienced a increase in average price; up 15.9% to $433,131
Halton Hills & Brampton
- The average home price in Halton hills was up almost 12% from last month and up 3% from last year, one of the only cities that saw an average price gain from the previous year
- Condos in Brampton were up 15% in average price from last year with condo towns up by 5.4%.
- Detached, semis and freehold towns average prices were down marginally from last month in Brampton
GTA Prices & Sales by Area (TREB's MLS System) - February 2018
As we settle into 2018, the market is showing a significant and steady increase in sales volume and corresponding decrease of time on the market. Similarly, there has been a marginal but steady overall increase in average price across both boards. But, as we’ve discussed throughout the post, we’re still seeing an overall decrease in both sales and average price year-to-year. We can expect to see this over the next few months as we move through the peak of 2017’s red-hot market. Once we pass April, when the 2017 market began to steady out, we’ll begin to see more reasonable and comparable year-to-year statistics that will gives us a truer picture of how the market is doing in 2018. Until then, the steady increase from month-to-month is a promising sign that the market is recovering from the measures put forth by the province intended to slow sales. We spoke a bit about these measures in last month's report, by most notably the new mortgage ‘stress-test’ had an impact on January’s market, as buyers began to adjust and understand how to new rules work. As these measures immediate effects begin to level out, we’ll most likely continue to see this controlled increase in sales and prices. Check back in next month as we examine the TREB and RAHB numbers for March 2018. Let us know your thoughts on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.
Note: Many of the stats in this report use home type classifications and averages to provide a general idea of recent activity in the real estate market throughout the GTA and Hamilton regions. These averages give us a high-level summary of the real estate market throughout the region and within each city compared to the previous month and year. These stats may or may not be relevant to a particular home or homes within a particular community. To better understand the home value of any particular property it is best to request a CMA from a REALTOR® and analyze sales of comparable homes within close proximity of the subject property.
Opinions are my own and should not be taken as advice. Data Compiled by New Street from TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) and RAHB (Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington). In association with Right at Home Realty Inc., Brokerage, 5111 New Street, Burlington, ON L7L 1V2. The information here is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by New Street, TREB or RAHB. Not intended to solicit listed properties or buyers under agency agreements.