June 2018 – Closing the Gap - The New Street Resale Real Estate Report for The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region
We called May the “last month of red” for both markets, and it looks like we were relatively accurate – with more and more areas seeing positive increases both from last year and last month. This is particularly true for low-rise homes, which have not seen much gains for most of 2018. In fact, low-rise and condo sales and pricing discrepancies have been tightening up so much that we're predicting that houses will begin to see a renewed interest from the market. One trend that is apparent is a lack of widespread trends -- it seems each neighborhood and city is acting independently of one another. However, more or less across the board new listings are down, which shows that supply might start tightening up in the coming months as sales increase. That being said, we are still seeing double the new listings compared to sales.
GTA & Hamilton Home Prices - TREB & RABH MLS Systems - Last 12 Months
For the TREB market in particular, it seems the last month of red really was May. The region saw 8,082 sales for the month of June, up 3.2% from May and 2.4% from last year. The average price is also up 2% from last year as well (0.5% last month). With prices and sales up, it's still taking longer to sell, with the average days on market up by 5% from last month and up 40% from last year.
The story is slightly different for the Region of Hamilton & Burlington (RAHB), however marginal declines from last month tells us that home sales and prices are steady. At a 4.3% decrease from last month the region saw 1,218 sales and an average price of $548,300, down 2.9% from last month and 2.5% from last year.
New listings for both markets are in the red; in the mid to high teens from last month and almost 20% for both markets from last year. This indicates a tightening of supply that may continue if the new listing trend continues. We’ll be keeping an eye on this in the coming months.
GTA & Hamilton Homes Sales Stats – June 2018
Evaluating the June sales by home type shows us the following insights:
- Condominiums are still seeing the highest price growth, particularly in the 416
- However low-rise product is taking the lead in sales increase (semis leading the pack) showing a renewed interest in ground-oriented housing
- 905 saw an increase in sales for low-rise product (including townhomes)
- Semi-detached sales in the 905 are up 28% from last month
- The average price in the 905 area is up along most types from last year (with the exception of detached) and down only marginally from last month, 0.1-1%.
- The 416 is seeing positive sales numbers as well in all types except condos, which are down 8.7% from last month.
- Similar to 905, semi-detached sales are up 22.7% in Toronto from last month.
GTA Sales & Average Price by Home Type - June 2018
The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington MLS System saw mostly marginal decreases in both types in June. Sales were down 3.8% and 6.3% for freehold and condos since last month (down in the mid-teens from last year) and average prices were down 3-3.5% for both types. Only a 2.6-2.9% drop from this time last year.
Hamilton & Burlington Sales & Average Price by Home Type - May 2018
As we look at the map below, we can begin to examine how the market is performing on a more local level in the Hamilton and Southwestern Ontario area:
As previously mentioned, different areas are performing independent of one another, even so granularly as major differences between the different Hamilton sub-areas.
- Hamilton West experienced a 13.3% increase in sales from last month (up 6.3% from last year)
- Average prices in Hamilton West dropped from last month by 4.1% to $480,197, representing an 8% increase from last years average price
- Contrasting significantly, Hamilton East and Center experienced a drop in sales and average sales price, both from last year and from last month. In fact, average price is over $100,000 less in both areas than Hamilton West
- Hamilton Centre saw 84 sales in June, one of the highest numbers for the area, however, this represented a 6.7% drop from the previous month and a staggering 37.8% drop in sales from this time last year
- The average price in Hamilton Centre was also down marginally, 10.6% from the previous month and 4.5% from last year at $331,908
- The average price in Hamilton East is up 2.3% from last year at $372,464 (down 3.3% from the previous month)
- Hamilton Mountain saw the most sales, at 176 sales in June, however, the area is down in both sales volume (11.6%) and price (5.4% to 461,405). This represents a 3.6% price increase from this time last year
Although it can be hard to predict exactly why Hamilton is experiencing a relative downswing in prices and sales, it may be due in part to the GTA experiencing more competitive and affordable prices of late.
- Flamborough experienced another 30+% increase in sales, up 38.5% to 18 sales
- Flamborough average price of $936,961 up 20% from last year, higher than the rest of the Hamilton Region and most of GTA
- Waterdown is down from the previous month in both average price (down 4.1% to $647,533) and sales volume (down 15.6%)
- Dundas also experienced a staggering increase in sales volume from last month, 45.5% to 32 sales
- The average price in Dundas remained relatively the same from last month, down slightly to $580,697
- Ancaster had a fairly slow month with 47% fewer sales than last year, down 14$ from last month
- The average price in Ancaster remained steady with last year, down only 1.8%
- Grimsby has been seeing a steady increase in sales volume the last few months, and is up in June by 47.4% to 56 sales
- The average price is up 10.4% to $579,403 in Grimsby
- Stoney Creek saw 87 sales (down 6.5% from last month) and saw a marginal decrease in average price of 2.8% to $555,779.
Caledonia saw 14 sales (down 6.7% from last month) and saw a decrease in average price of 13.7% to $420,432.
Glanbrook cracked the $600,000 average price mark last month with a 6.9% spike in price. However sales volume is down 33.3%.
Dunville saw an increase in sales from last month to 19 sales (up 46.2%) and an increase in average price from last year of 24.4% to $394,626, which represents a 10.5% decrease in sales price from last month.
Hamilton & Southwestern Ontario Prices & Sales by Community (RAHB's MLS System) - May 2018
As mentioned previously, there seems to be less and less of a pattern between regions. When looking more closely at city and sub-region data, the following insights arise:
- Condo sales volume are down in Toronto across all districts from 4-12%; average prices are up from 8-13.5%.
- Toronto Central saw the largest sales volume of any region in the GTA at 1,498. However, that still represents a 3.7% decrease in sales for the area.
- Semi-detached was the only type of product to see an increase in sales in Toronto Centre of 19.7%. Average price was up 0.6% to $966,088, the highest in the Toronto area.
- Toronto West is up 1.3% in average price, with all housing types seeing a percentage increase from 2.9-8.3%. Sales volume was down by 1.4% to 819.
- Toronto East saw an increase in average price from last month and this time last year to $771,830.
- Townhomes in Toronto East were the only product type to experience a decrease in both average price (down 1.9%) and sales volume (3.6%), although marginal decreases for both.
- Detached homes in Toronto East saw a 20% jump and condo towns saw a 25% jump from last year. Prices for both types are up 7-8%.
- In the last few months, Oakville, Richmond Hill and Vaughan have been head to head for the highest average price, and this month Oakville far surpassed, with an average of $1,074,230, up 6.6% from last month.
- Sales volume by product type was up in Oakville across the board, but down overall 3.2% from last month.
- Towns and condo sales in Oakville were up 55-70%, while detached sales were up 5.7% and semi sales up 18%.
- Prices of detached homes are up 5% from last year
- Mississauga prices are steady since last year, up and down 1-2% with condos seeing the highest increase of 4%.
- Mississauga has the third highest sales volume in the GTA last month, at 833, up 0.5% from the previous month.
- Condos were the only product type to not experience an increase in sales in Mississauga, down 14%; while semis sales were up 13%.
- The average prices of a home was down marginally in Mississauga, 0.1% from last month. All types except towns saw a marginal increase in average price; between 1-3.9%.
- Home sales in Milton are up 7.5% to 206, with Semis and Condos seeing an increase last month; semis by almost 30%.
- Detached home sales in Milton were down 12%.
- The average price is down 2.8% to $701,595 (5-9% for semis and detached).
- Milton Towns, condos and condo-towns experienced a marginal increase in average price of 0.4-1.7%
- Detached and semis average price decreased by 9.0% and 5.0% respectively.
- Brampton experienced a slight decrease in the average price by 1.8%
- All home types experienced an increase in price from 1-7% from last year.
- Home sales in Brampton are up 12.7% to 771.
- Condos in Brampton saw the highest jump in activity, up 26%.
- Vaughan saw a 3.6% increase in sales to 289.
- The average price in Vaughan is down 7.3% (11% from last year)
- Sales remain steady and the area still remains one of the highest average prices in the GTA at $940,866.
- Richmond Hill is the second-highest average price in the GTA at $1,033,754
- Individual home types in Richmond Hill are down marginally across the board. Sales are up 12.2% to 193.
- Markham saw an increase in average price of 5.8% to $974,626.
- Condo towns in Markham were the only individual type to see an increase in price (11.5% to $692,932).
- Sales in Markham were also up in the area by 11.1% to 330; detached were up 24%.
- Newmarket was up 36.1% in sales to 132.
- Detached and semis in Newmarket saw a significant increase of 30.6% and 64.3%.
- The average price was up 4.8% to $777,113 in Newmarket.
- Aurora saw an increase in sales of 3.3% to 94 sales, up 40% from last year.
- The average price in Aurora was down 3.3% to 899,991, with detached homes up 27%.
- Burlington saw a decrease in both sales (9.9%) and average price (4.2% to $774,059) from last month.
- Condos towns were the only type to also see a decrease in both average price and sales volume, down in sales by 34% with prices down as well.
- This can be due to condo towns prices encroaching on freehold and semi-detached prices, with the latter being more favourable to buyers)
- Other home types in Burlington were up across the board for sales: Detached sales up 9%; Semi sales up 7% and towns sales are up 21%, with prices keeping steady for all types.
- Condo prices rose 11% from last year, with sales up a staggering 48%.
- All other types saw an increase in price and sales numbers, particularly condos which saw an increase of 48.3% in sales (to 43) and 10.7% in average price to $489,888.
- Halton Hills experienced a 21.3% increase in sales to 97.
- The average price was down across the board; overall price was down 8.2% to $707,532.
GTA Prices & Sales by Area (TREB's MLS System) - May 2018
We’re definitely beginning to see an overall stability to the market, with fluctuations both up and down marginally in percentages, not the double-digit numbers we were seeing at the beginning of the year. Some definite trends include the closing gap between condo and low-rise product, as it seems the market is beginning to show more interest in detached homes again. Predictable trends are fading, as most cities and regions are acting independently of one another. Finally, decreases in new listings might lead to a tightening supply into next month and possibly longer.
Note: Many of the stats in this report use home type classifications and averages to provide a general idea of recent activity in the real estate market throughout the GTA and Hamilton regions. These averages give us a high-level summary of the real estate market throughout the region and within each city compared to the previous month and year. These stats may or may not be relevant to a particular home or homes within a particular community. To better understand the home value of any particular property it is best to request a CMA from a REALTOR® and analyze sales of comparable homes within close proximity of the subject property.
Opinions are my own and should not be taken as advice. Data Compiled by New Street from TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) and RAHB (Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington). In association with Right at Home Realty Inc., Brokerage, 5111 New Street, Burlington, ON L7L 1V2. The information here is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by New Street, TREB or RAHB. Not intended to solicit listed properties or buyers under agency agreements.